One of my friends sent me the country’s budget 2026, and while I did not want to look at it, Claude did. Thank you, my friend.

This is a column for those interested to know that we hand GOA FIVE million florin every day by means of various taxes, to spend as it deems fit.

This is excluding AZV, AOV and SvB charges collected from us, for us.

In fact, we are being bled dry, and the amount of taxes is chocking growth and affecting our wellness. GOA consumes about 23% of our GDP, says my source, excluding AZV. If you include what GOA collects for AZV, we reach close to SEVEN million florins. See chart!

That takes us to 30% of GDP.

The average Caribbean government expenditure, according to OECD, is 21.9%.

Aruba weighs about 50% heavier than other islands, while we should be lean and prudent, and invest carefully, and wisely, manage our properties, and protect our assets.

As you know, we are failures in money management.

Why is the island so expensive? Because GOA collects.

And we have not added the BILLIONS necessary to catch up on all the technical debt, in infrastructure maintenance, stuff GOA choses to postpone, or ignore.

This week, 24ora mentioned main street Oranjestad neglected, the paint on MFA Santa Curz is faded, the catholic cemetery in Oranjestad is in a deplorable state, the Pier at Rodgers Beach collapsing. The drivers’ license office is falling apart, the MFAs need renovations and the one in San Nicolas, budgeted 10 years ago and never built, is said to begin construction, soon. Maybe.

All that cost must be added as accounts payable.

This will get more critical as tourism income subsides, and the base cost of living increases, making fixed costs weigh even heavier on us.

I am not done….

We are not accounting for the services of defense, justice and foreign affairs born by the kingdom, if we took that into consideration the burden would be MUCH higher.

The true cost of running Aruba is close to half of our GDP.

The worst part is little investment, just 2%, whereas the World Bank recommends 15-20% of government’s revenue to be the minimum consistent with maintaining and growing an economy’s positive capacity.

At the rate of our actual income now, the roads should be paved with gold.

Below, what Claude said about the budget:

The draft budget projects revenues of Afl. 1,882,686,000 and expenditures of Afl. 1,755,484,000, with direct tax revenues estimated at Afl. 641,600,000 for 2026.

The draft budget shows a surplus of 159 million florins, equivalent to 2.1% of GDP. Surpluses of more than 1% of GDP are also projected for 2027-2030, meaning the AVP-FUTURO government meets the norms imposed by the Netherlands.

Debt Reduction

Aruba closed 2025 with a significant budget surplus and is ahead of schedule on its debt reduction path. The financing surplus of the collective sector came in at 3.9% of GDP for 2025, well above the 1% norm. In 2026, Aruba again budgets a surplus of 2.6% of GDP for the collective sector. Government debt is projected to fall to 56% of GDP in 2026 and further to 47% in 2028.

Pensions & Social Spending

A key pressure point in the budget is the pension supplement (reparatietoeslag) for AOV retirees, which is being raised again by 150 florins per month per pensioner as of January 1, 2026. This increases transfer expenditures by 23 million florins compared to the draft budget, and by 82 million florins compared to 2025. The CAft (financial supervisory body) estimates the structural impact of these increases is now at least 140 million florins per year and warns this will grow further due to an aging population.

The CAft also notes that the supplement is currently paid to all pensioners regardless of income and recommends that an income test be applied to improve targeting and cost control.

Low Investment Despite Strong Finances

A striking concern is the incredibly low level of public investment: only 7 million florins is earmarked for investments in the final budget, down from 50 million in the draft. The CAft notes that available budget room is being used mainly for debt repayment and structural policy measures, but not for investments. A multi-year investment agenda is also absent.

Interest Costs

Interest payments remain a significant burden — in 2026, 16 cents of every florin of government income goes toward debt servicing. This share is projected to remain roughly the same through 2030 and depends on international interest rates and Aruba’s creditworthiness.

HOFA: New Kingdom Law on Sustainable Finances

A major development alongside the budget is the proposed Consensusrijkswet HOFA (Kingdom Act on Sustainable Public Finances for Aruba), which passed a key milestone in March 2026. Once in force, this law will allow Aruba to borrow from the Netherlands at favorable rates, and the Netherlands has agreed to help refinance part of Aruba’s loans on the American capital market.

Bottom Line

Aruba’s 2026 budget is financially solid — surpluses are strong, and debt is falling faster than planned — but structural risks are growing due to rising pension costs and persistently low public investment.

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